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2008
Rains help boost 2008 crop estimates, cold spring a concern
June 12, 2008
Winnipeg – The CWB today released its preliminary crop forecasts, projecting a western Canadian wheat and durum crop of 21.2 million tonnes in the 2008 crop year, up from last year’s 18.4 million tonnes but below the five-year average of 22.1 million tonnes.
“Recent rains have improved conditions across much of the Prairies,” said Bruce Burnett, CWB director of weather and market analysis, at the annual CWB grain industry briefing today. “However, soil moisture levels are still low in many western growing areas due to the persistent dry conditions over the previous two to three years.”
A cool spring, with temperatures three to five degrees below normal, has also caused concern over crop development, elevating the importance of receiving normal or above-normal heat this summer. Wheat, durum and barley crops are currently one to two weeks behind normal due to the cold weather. “A continuation of cool weather could lead to delayed development and increased risk of frost damage this fall,” Burnett said.
Durum production is expected to increase to 4.8 million tonnes from 3.7 million tonnes in 2007, while barley production is predicted to decrease to 9.9 million tonnes from 10.3 million tonnes last year.
For the world grain outlook, production problems in the American cornbelt are expected to result in a significant decline in corn production this year. Above-average yields are being reported from the U.S. hard winter wheat harvest, currently underway in Oklahoma and Texas. Globally, a record world wheat crop of 663 million tonnes is predicted.
“The global price structure for wheat is expected to remain strong in the face of record production, given the high demand from increasing consumption and the record low stocks related to previous years’ production problems around the world,” Burnett said.
Weather in Europe has improved over last year, with record wheat production expected, while dryness is causing problems for North African durum prospects. Hot, dry weather has also been a concern for production prospects in the Middle East and Turkey.
A weather and crop prospects summary is attached. The Web cast of the weather and crop conditions briefing will be available on the CWB Web site, www.cwb.ca, for 90 days.
Controlled by western Canadian farmers, the CWB is the largest wheat and barley marketer in the world. One of Canada’s biggest exporters, the Winnipeg-based organization sells grain to over 70 countries and returns all sales revenue, less marketing costs, to farmers.
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For more information, please contact:
Maureen Fitzhenry
CWB Media Relations Manager
Tel: (204) 983-3101
Cell: (204) 227-6927
CWB Industry Briefing June 12, 2008
Western Canada
Recent rains have helped improve early-season growing conditions, but low soil moisture levels remain a concern for western Canadian production. Drier-than-normal conditions that have persisted in the western regions for two to three years have increased production risks, especially for crops grown south of the Trans Canada Highway. The first significant rainfall event of the spring season has moved through the some of the drier regions of the south over the past two days, but the chief concern remains extremely dry subsoil moisture conditions. The other concern with this year’s crop has been the extremely cold conditions experienced since April. Accumulated heat units have been significantly below normal.
Poor soil moisture conditions in Western Canada are the result of a very persistent weather pattern that has kept the southern Prairies drier than normal for the past two years. Dry conditions during the 2007 growing season continued through the fall, resulting in low subsoil moisture levels (less than 50 millimetres) at freeze-up for most of southern Saskatchewan and Alberta. Dry conditions persisted into the winter months of 2007-08 in the southern and central regions. Northern growing areas faced the opposite conditions, as above-normal snowfall threatened to delay seeding. Cool temperatures persisted from March to May, resulting in very slow melting of the snowpack in the north. A late April snowstorm also caused delays in getting on the fields in northwestern Saskatchewan. The cool temperatures in May delayed the emergence of the crop across the Prairies.
The planting pace in Western Canada was a week behind normal at the beginning of May due to the cool temperatures and a late-season snowstorm in western Saskatchewan and eastern Alberta. Warmer temperatures and mostly dry weather during May boosted planting progress ahead of normal by the end of the month. Planting progress may not be as significant a factor this year as late emergence. Wheat, durum and barley crops are currently one to two weeks behind normal because of the cold conditions. A continuation of the cool weather through the month of June will result in serious concerns about the delayed development and increased risk of frost damage in the fall.
Rains during the past two weeks have improved the moisture situation in Alberta, southwestern Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Rainfall amounts have been very heavy in parts of Alberta, where drier conditions would be welcome to boost growth and development of the crop. Drought is therefore no longer a concern throughout most of central and southern Alberta. Rainfall during the spring in eastern and central areas of Saskatchewan has been less than 50 per cent of normal, which is causing some concern. Recent rains have helped improve the moisture outlook, but additional rains are still required, especially in central Saskatchewan.
The seeded area estimates contained in Table C below are based on reports from CWB Farm Business Representatives and weather conditions. Relatively dry planting conditions during the spring period are expected to result in only minor changes from the Statistics Canada’s similar sown areas. Some minor switching from wheat and canola into oats, barley and pulse crops is expected.
Table B shows projected yields and resulting production using a weather based risk model developed by the CWB. For wheat, the weather model indicates that the most likely wheat yields fall within the range of 30.4 and 36.6 bushels per acre, with the most likely yield (as of June 12) being 34.3 bushels per acre. This yield is more than 1.5 bushels per acre lower at this point in time. Durum yield expectations are also lower than last year at this time, with the most likely yield forecast at 30.5 bushels per acre. In comparison, the projected yield last year at this time was 33.2 bushels per acre, well below the actual yield in 2007 of 38.4 bushels per acre.
Based on modelled yields, all wheat production for Western Canada (see Table A) is expected to increase to 21.2 million tonnes, with durum production rising to 4.8 million tonnes. Barley production is predicted to decrease from 10.9 million tonnes last year to 9.9 million tonnes.
World Outlook
World wheat estimates for 2008 are at record levels, with the United States Department of Agriculture estimating production to reach 663 million tonnes.
Production problems in the cornbelt of the United States are expected to result in a significant decline corn production this year. The wet conditions are also expected to damage the quality of the Soft Red Winter wheat crop in the eastern cornbelt. Hard Red Winter wheat harvesting is underway in Oklahoma and Texas, with above-average yields and lower-than-normal protein expected. Wheat output is expected to recover in the US to 66.2 million tonnes – an increase of nearly 10 million tonnes from 2007-08. Poor subsoil moisture in the western Dakotas is expected to present similar risks of yield reductions for the U.S. spring wheat and durum crops as in Canada.
The weather picture in Europe has improved over last year, with record wheat production expected. Dry conditions across North Africa during the growing season have hurt durum prospects, especially in Tunisia and Algeria. Production prospects in the countries of the Black Sea region are very good and production is expected to increase by over 11 million tonnes from last year’s levels. Farmers in eastern Australia are still planting their winter wheat crop as dry soils have delayed the onset of seeding. Recent rainfall in parts of the eastern grainbelt of Australia has been most welcome. Production in the Middle East and Turkey has been hurt by hot, dry conditions during the growing season. This region should see a significant reduction in grain production this year.
World Outlook
Table A
Western Canada |
|||||
Production* |
|||||
(million tonnes) |
|||||
|
Statistics Canada |
|
CWB |
|
|
|
5-year average |
2007 |
|
2008 |
|
|
|
|
10th |
50th |
90th |
|
|
|
Percentile |
Percentile |
Percentile |
All Wheat |
22.1 |
18.4 |
18.7 |
21.2 |
22.6 |
Durum |
4.4 |
3.7 |
4.2 |
4.8 |
5.2 |
Oats |
3.5 |
4.3 |
3.2 |
3.4 |
3.5 |
Barley |
10.9 |
10.3 |
9.1 |
9.9 |
10.3 |
Rye |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
Flax |
0.8 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
0.7 |
0.8 |
Canola |
8.3 |
8.7 |
9.2 |
9.9 |
10.6 |
*Estimates based on weather model yields and CWB area forecasts. |
|
||||
Table B
Western Canada |
|||
CWB weather model yields* |
|||
|
10th |
50th |
90th |
|
Percentile |
Percentile |
Percentile |
|
(bu/ac) |
(bu/ac) |
(bu/ac) |
All wheat |
30.4 |
34.3 |
36.6 |
Durum |
26.3 |
30.5 |
33.1 |
Oats |
63.4 |
66.5 |
68.4 |
Barley |
52.9 |
57.2 |
59.6 |
Rye |
29.9 |
33.5 |
35.4 |
Flax |
17.3 |
19.8 |
21.1 |
Canola |
27.8 |
30.3 |
32.2 |
*Estimates based on weather model of Western Canada. |
|||
Table C
Western Canada |
||||
Sown area |
||||
(million acres) |
||||
|
Statistics Canada |
CWB |
|
|
|
2008 March |
2007 |
2008 |
% change |
|
intentions |
|
|
|
All Wheat |
23.60 |
20.67 |
23.32 |
12.8% |
Durum |
5.90 |
4.82 |
5.90 |
22.5% |
Oats |
4.14 |
4.99 |
4.23 |
-15.2% |
Barley |
8.76 |
10.34 |
8.91 |
-13.8% |
Rye |
0.30 |
0.26 |
0.30 |
15.7% |
Flax |
1.47 |
1.31 |
1.50 |
14.9% |
Canola |
14.79 |
14.67 |
14.70 |
0.2% |
Six grains and oilseeds |
53.04 |
52.22 |
52.94 |
1.4% |
Bruce Burnett
Director, weather and market analysis
Canadian Wheat Board
Bruce Burnett has tracked weather and monitored crops for the Canadian Wheat Board since 1988. After 10 years as a weather and crop surveillance analyst, Bruce became director of the unit in 1998. He heads a department of experts with specialized skills who provide a service unique in Canada to monitor weather and crop development around the world.
Weather and crop surveillance information is fed into CWB market analysis and the sales planning process. Bruce also directs the CWB’s team of market analysts, who gather information from around the world to support the CWB’s grain marketing strategy and maximize farmer returns from the sale of their crops.
Bruce grew up on a mixed farm near Binscarth in western Manitoba. He holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Agriculture and a Masters degree in Soil Science from the University of Manitoba.
Gord Finlay
Weather and crop surveillance analyst
Canadian Wheat Board
Gordon Finlay uses the latest in computer modelling and satellite technology to monitor weather and crop development around the globe. He has worked for the CWB’s weather and crop surveillance unit for the past year, after completing a Masters degree in Soil Science, which focused on quantifying weather impacts on wheat quality and yield.
Gordon grew up on a mixed farm near Rapid City in western Manitoba. He holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Agriculture and a Masters degree in Soil Science from the University of Manitoba.
