Farmers
Pool Return Outlooks
2009-10 crop year
DATE: October 22, 2009
Durum, Malting Barley Values Down in Latest CWB PRO
Winnipeg -- The CWB today released its latest Pool Return Outlook (PRO) for the 2009-10 crop year. Wheat values are unchanged from the September PRO. Milling durum is down $8 per tonne, while malting barley has dropped by $4 per tonne. Pool A feed barley is unchanged. Currency and commodity markets remain volatile, adding uncertainty to the forward outlook.
| October PRO | September PRO | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009-10 | 2009-10 | |||
| - In store Vancouver or St. Lawrence - | ||||
| Tonne | Bushel | Tonne | Bushel | |
| Wheat | ||||
| 1 CWRS 14.5 | 263.00 | 7.16 | 263.00 | 7.16 |
| 1 CWRS 13.5 | 245.00 | 6.67 | 245.00 | 6.67 |
| 1 CWRS 12.5 | 231.00 | 6.29 | 231.00 | 6.29 |
| 1 CWRS 11.5 | 219.00 | 5.96 | 219.00 | 5.96 |
| 2 CWRS 13.5 | 238.00 | 6.48 | 238.00 | 6.48 |
| 2 CWRS 11.5 | 212.00 | 5.77 | 212.00 | 5.77 |
| 3 CWRS 13.0 | 216.00 | 5.88 | 216.00 | 5.88 |
| 3 CWRS | 197.00 | 5.36 | 197.00 | 5.36 |
| 4 CWRS | 183.00 | 4.98 | 183.00 | 4.98 |
| 1 CWHWS 13.5 | 245.00 | 6.67 | 245.00 | 6.67 |
| 1 CPSR | 197.00 | 5.36 | 197.00 | 5.36 |
| 1 CPSW | 194.00 | 5.28 | 194.00 | 5.28 |
| 1 CWRW Select 11.5 | 205.00 | 5.58 | 205.00 | 5.58 |
| 1 CWRW | 192.00 | 5.23 | 192.00 | 5.23 |
| 1 CWES | 215.00 | 5.85 | 215.00 | 5.85 |
| 1 CWSWS Select <9.9 | 185.00 | 5.03 | 185.00 | 5.03 |
| 1 CWSWS | 171.00 | 4.65 | 171.00 | 4.65 |
| CW Feed | 149.00 | 4.06 | 149.00 | 4.06 |
| Durum | ||||
| 1 CWAD 14.5 | 227.00 | 6.18 | 235.00 | 6.40 |
| 1 CWAD 13.0 | 216.00 | 5.88 | 224.00 | 6.10 |
| 1 CWAD 12.5 | 213.00 | 5.80 | 221.00 | 6.01 |
| 1 CWAD 11.5 | 206.00 | 5.61 | 214.00 | 5.82 |
| 2 CWAD 13.0 | 206.00 | 5.61 | 214.00 | 5.82 |
| 2 CWAD 11.5 | 199.00 | 5.42 | 207.00 | 5.63 |
| 3 CWAD 13.0 | 189.00 | 5.14 | 197.00 | 5.36 |
| 3 CWAD | 182.00 | 4.95 | 190.00 | 5.17 |
| 4 CWAD | 165.00 | 4.49 | 173.00 | 4.71 |
| 5 CWAD | 149.00 | 4.06 | 149.00 | 4.06 |
| Feed barley | ||||
| 1 CW - Pool A | 145.00 | 3.16 | 145.00 | 3.16 |
| Designated barley | ||||
| Sel CW Two-Row | 208.00 | 4.53 | 212.00 | 4.62 |
| Sel CW Six-Row | 190.00 | 4.14 | 194.00 | 4.22 |
| Note: PROs are the CWB's estimate of crop year returns. Farmers who use PROs to make marketing decisions are advised that unusual weather in importing or exporting countries and other changes in market conditions could dramatically affect the price forecasts. PROs are not price guarantees and should not be confused with initial payments. PROs also do not represent CWB offer values for prospective sales transactions nor sales values for actual transactions. | ||||
PRO Commentary
2009-10 crop year
Wheat
International wheat values have strengthened on a U.S. dollar basis over the past month, mostly as a result of the relative strength of non-U.S. currencies. The Euro, the Australian dollar and the Russian rouble have all strengthened against the U.S. dollar, increasing world prices in U.S. dollar terms. The Canadian dollar has also strengthened, offsetting much of the impact of the U.S. dollar-price increases. Wheat futures markets in the U.S. have been supported by the weak U.S. dollar and by strong corn and soybean futures as cool, wet conditions in the corn and soybean growing regions limit harvest progress. U.S. wheat futures have increased between 41 and 45 cents per bushel over the past month; however, there has been some erosion of basis levels.
World wheat production is now forecast by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) to reach 668 million tonnes, the second largest wheat crop in history. Although global production is 14 million tonnes lower than last year, worldwide wheat stocks are forecast to grow by 20 million tonnes this year, the second consecutive year of building global wheat stocks. Statistics Canada is now forecasting Canadian all-wheat production of 24.6 million tonnes. The overall harvest in Western Canada is 88-per-cent complete, with spring wheat harvest at 90-per-cent finished.
In the U.S., winter wheat planting is now 69-per-cent complete, compared to 78 per cent normally planted at this time. U.S. wheat exports continue to lag, with only 50 per cent of the forecast export program sold, compared to 63 per cent on average. In Brazil, rain continues to reduce quality and delay the wheat harvest. The USDA forecasts Brazil will produce 4.5 million tonnes of wheat this crop year, compared to six million tonnes last year. As a result, Brazil is expected to import 6.5 million tonnes, which is 500 000 tonnes more than last year. High exports taxes in Argentina will limit exports forcing Brazil to import more wheat from other suppliers. Beneficial rains continue to boost crop prospects in Australia. The USDA is now forecasting Australian wheat production of 23.5 million tonnes.
Durum
The fundamentals of the durum market are weaker than they have been for many years. The world durum trade is forecast to decrease by 400 000 tonnes from last year, although a lower price structure should bring back some additional demand. The durum harvest is nearing completion in North America, with about five per cent left to harvest in Canada. Statistics Canada is now forecasting Canadian durum production of 5.1 million tonnes, while the USDA is forecasting U.S. durum production of three million tonnes, up dramatically from what was projected prior to harvest and the largest U.S. crop since 1998. Ending stocks of durum in Canada are expected to increase and stocks in the U.S. are projected to double. The large North American crops, particularly in the U.S., along with weak post-harvest demand from major importing countries, have kept durum prices under pressure. Significantly higher durum import levies into the European Union have been disruptive to trade in recent weeks, adding uncertainty to the outlook. There has been some recovery from the lows experienced during the North American harvest, while increased demand is expected to be supportive of the world price structure as major importing countries begin to deplete domestic supplies.
Feed barley
Global feed barley prices were slightly higher this month, but any gains from the U.S.-dollar-based export price structure were offset by the stronger Canadian dollar. Harvest concerns for the U.S. corn crop were supportive for feed grain prices. Cool, wet conditions in the corn-growing regions limited harvest progress. Moderate to heavy rains compounded problems caused by weeks of very wet conditions. The U.S. corn harvest is only 17-per-cent complete, compared to 46 per cent normally at this time. The USDA is forecasting global barley production of 147 million tonnes, which is five million tonnes larger than the five-year average. Statistics Canada has revised its Canadian barley production forecast up from 8.9 million tonnes to 9.2 million tonnes. Large carry-in stocks of barley will counter smaller-than-normal Canadian barley production. Black Sea feed barley remains the cheapest source of feed grain in the world.
Designated barley
Malting barley prices were pressured lower by large malting barley stocks, ample global production and a strong Canadian dollar. Malting barley prices also continue to be pressured down by large supplies of malting-quality barley in Europe and increased production estimates in Australia. Timely rains and good growing conditions have been favourable for the Australian barley crop. The USDA increased its forecast Australian barley production to 7.8 million tonnes, up 800 000 tonnes from last year. Increased production in Australia, if realized, would add to already-large global supplies of malting barley and pressure malting barley values closer to feed values.
| 2009-10 AVERAGE POOL RETURN OUTLOOK BY PROVINCE | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (Cdn dollars per tonne) | |||||||||
| October | MB | SK | AB | BC | |||||
| PRO | Deduction | Return | Deduction | Return | Deduction | Return | Deduction | Return | |
| Wheat | |||||||||
| 1 CWRS 14.5 | 263.00 | 53.13 | 209.87 | 58.56 | 204.44 | 50.81 | 212.19 | 48.53 | 214.47 |
| 1 CWRS 13.5 | 245.00 | 53.13 | 191.87 | 58.56 | 186.44 | 50.81 | 194.19 | 48.53 | 196.47 |
| 1 CWRS 12.5 | 231.00 | 53.13 | 177.87 | 58.56 | 172.44 | 50.81 | 180.19 | 48.53 | 182.47 |
| 1 CWRS 11.5 | 219.00 | 53.13 | 165.87 | 58.56 | 160.44 | 50.81 | 168.19 | 48.53 | 170.47 |
| 2 CWRS 13.5 | 238.00 | 53.13 | 184.87 | 58.56 | 179.44 | 50.81 | 187.19 | 48.53 | 189.47 |
| 2 CWRS 11.5 | 212.00 | 53.13 | 158.87 | 58.56 | 153.44 | 50.81 | 161.19 | 48.53 | 163.47 |
| 3 CWRS 13.0 | 216.00 | 53.13 | 162.87 | 58.56 | 157.44 | 50.81 | 165.19 | 48.53 | 167.47 |
| 3 CWRS | 197.00 | 53.13 | 143.87 | 58.56 | 138.44 | 50.81 | 146.19 | 48.53 | 148.47 |
| 4 CWRS | 183.00 | 53.13 | 129.87 | 58.56 | 124.44 | 50.81 | 132.19 | 48.53 | 134.47 |
| 1 CWHWS 13.5 | 245.00 | 53.13 | 191.87 | 58.56 | 186.44 | 50.81 | 194.19 | 48.53 | 196.47 |
| 1 CPSR | 197.00 | 53.13 | 143.87 | 58.56 | 138.44 | 50.81 | 146.19 | 48.53 | 148.47 |
| 1 CPSW | 194.00 | 53.13 | 140.87 | 58.56 | 135.44 | 50.81 | 143.19 | 48.53 | 145.47 |
| 1 CWRW Select 11.5 | 205.00 | 58.90 | 146.10 | 61.35 | 143.65 | 50.24 | 154.76 | 48.40 | 156.60 |
| 1 CWRW | 192.00 | 58.90 | 133.10 | 61.35 | 130.65 | 50.24 | 141.76 | 48.40 | 143.60 |
| 1 CWES | 215.00 | 57.22 | 157.78 | 57.41 | 157.59 | 50.98 | 164.02 | 48.53 | 166.47 |
| 1 CWSWS Select <9.9 | 185.00 | 53.13 | 131.87 | 58.56 | 126.44 | 50.81 | 134.19 | 48.53 | 136.47 |
| 1 CWSWS | 171.00 | 53.13 | 117.87 | 58.56 | 112.44 | 50.81 | 120.19 | 48.53 | 122.47 |
| CW Feed | 149.00 | 53.13 | 95.87 | 58.56 | 90.44 | 50.81 | 98.19 | 48.53 | 100.47 |
| Durum | |||||||||
| 1 CWAD 14.5 | 227.00 | 43.17 | 183.83 | 54.55 | 172.45 | 50.49 | 176.51 | 48.53 | 178.47 |
| 1 CWAD 13.0 | 216.00 | 43.17 | 172.83 | 54.55 | 161.45 | 50.49 | 165.51 | 48.53 | 167.47 |
| 1 CWAD 12.5 | 213.00 | 43.17 | 169.83 | 54.55 | 158.45 | 50.49 | 162.51 | 48.53 | 164.47 |
| 1 CWAD 11.5 | 206.00 | 43.17 | 162.83 | 54.55 | 151.45 | 50.49 | 155.51 | 48.53 | 157.47 |
| 2 CWAD 13.0 | 206.00 | 43.17 | 162.83 | 54.55 | 151.45 | 50.49 | 155.51 | 48.53 | 157.47 |
| 2 CWAD 11.5 | 199.00 | 43.17 | 155.83 | 54.55 | 144.45 | 50.49 | 148.51 | 48.53 | 150.47 |
| 3 CWAD 13.0 | 189.00 | 43.17 | 145.83 | 54.55 | 134.45 | 50.49 | 138.51 | 48.53 | 140.47 |
| 3 CWAD | 182.00 | 43.17 | 138.83 | 54.55 | 127.45 | 50.49 | 131.51 | 48.53 | 133.47 |
| 4 CWAD | 165.00 | 43.17 | 121.83 | 54.55 | 110.45 | 50.49 | 114.51 | 48.53 | 116.47 |
| 5 CWAD | 149.00 | 43.17 | 105.83 | 54.55 | 94.45 | 50.49 | 98.51 | 48.53 | 100.47 |
| Feed barley | |||||||||
| 1 CW - Pool A | 145.00 | 69.63 | 75.37 | 66.35 | 78.65 | 57.40 | 87.60 | 54.89 | 90.11 |
| Designated barley | |||||||||
| Sel CW Two-Row | 208.00 | 58.24 | 149.76 | 66.28 | 141.72 | 57.19 | 150.81 | 57.65 | 150.35 |
| Sel CW Six-Row | 190.00 | 58.24 | 131.76 | 66.28 | 123.72 | 57.19 | 132.81 | 57.65 | 132.35 |
|
Estimated deductions are based on tariff rates and include freight, country elevation and removal of dockage. Deductions will vary by delivery point. |
|||||||||
| 2009-10 AVERAGE POOL RETURN OUTLOOK BY PROVINCE | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (Cdn dollars per bushel*) | |||||||||
| October | MB | SK | AB | BC | |||||
| PRO | Deduction | Return | Deduction | Return | Deduction | Return | Deduction | Return | |
| Wheat | |||||||||
| 1 CWRS 14.5 | 7.16 | 1.45 | 5.71 | 1.59 | 5.57 | 1.38 | 5.78 | 1.32 | 5.84 |
| 1 CWRS 13.5 | 6.67 | 1.45 | 5.22 | 1.59 | 5.08 | 1.38 | 5.29 | 1.32 | 5.35 |
| 1 CWRS 12.5 | 6.29 | 1.45 | 4.84 | 1.59 | 4.70 | 1.38 | 4.91 | 1.32 | 4.97 |
| 1 CWRS 11.5 | 5.96 | 1.45 | 4.51 | 1.59 | 4.37 | 1.38 | 4.58 | 1.32 | 4.64 |
| 2 CWRS 13.5 | 6.48 | 1.45 | 5.03 | 1.59 | 4.89 | 1.38 | 5.10 | 1.32 | 5.16 |
| 2 CWRS 11.5 | 5.77 | 1.45 | 4.32 | 1.59 | 4.18 | 1.38 | 4.39 | 1.32 | 4.45 |
| 3 CWRS 13.0 | 5.88 | 1.45 | 4.43 | 1.59 | 4.29 | 1.38 | 4.50 | 1.32 | 4.56 |
| 3 CWRS | 5.36 | 1.45 | 3.91 | 1.59 | 3.77 | 1.38 | 3.98 | 1.32 | 4.04 |
| 4 CWRS | 4.98 | 1.45 | 3.53 | 1.59 | 3.39 | 1.38 | 3.60 | 1.32 | 3.66 |
| 1 CWHWS 13.5 | 6.67 | 1.45 | 5.22 | 1.59 | 5.08 | 1.38 | 5.29 | 1.32 | 5.35 |
| 1 CPSR | 5.36 | 1.45 | 3.91 | 1.59 | 3.77 | 1.38 | 3.98 | 1.32 | 4.04 |
| 1 CPSW | 5.28 | 1.45 | 3.83 | 1.59 | 3.69 | 1.38 | 3.90 | 1.32 | 3.96 |
| 1 CWRW Select 11.5 | 5.58 | 1.60 | 3.98 | 1.67 | 3.91 | 1.37 | 4.21 | 1.32 | 4.26 |
| 1 CWRW | 5.23 | 1.60 | 3.63 | 1.67 | 3.56 | 1.37 | 3.86 | 1.32 | 3.91 |
| 1 CWES | 5.85 | 1.56 | 4.29 | 1.56 | 4.29 | 1.39 | 4.46 | 1.32 | 4.53 |
| 1 CWSWS Select <9.9 | 5.03 | 1.45 | 3.58 | 1.59 | 3.44 | 1.38 | 3.65 | 1.32 | 3.71 |
| 1 CWSWS | 4.65 | 1.45 | 3.20 | 1.59 | 3.06 | 1.38 | 3.27 | 1.32 | 3.33 |
| CW Feed | 4.06 | 1.45 | 2.61 | 1.59 | 2.47 | 1.38 | 2.68 | 1.32 | 2.74 |
| Durum | |||||||||
| 1 CWAD 14.5 | 6.18 | 1.17 | 5.01 | 1.48 | 4.70 | 1.37 | 4.81 | 1.32 | 4.86 |
| 1 CWAD 13.0 | 5.88 | 1.17 | 4.71 | 1.48 | 4.40 | 1.37 | 4.51 | 1.32 | 4.56 |
| 1 CWAD 12.5 | 5.80 | 1.17 | 4.63 | 1.48 | 4.32 | 1.37 | 4.43 | 1.32 | 4.48 |
| 1 CWAD 11.5 | 5.61 | 1.17 | 4.44 | 1.48 | 4.13 | 1.37 | 4.24 | 1.32 | 4.29 |
| 2 CWAD 13.0 | 5.61 | 1.17 | 4.44 | 1.48 | 4.13 | 1.37 | 4.24 | 1.32 | 4.29 |
| 2 CWAD 11.5 | 5.42 | 1.17 | 4.25 | 1.48 | 3.94 | 1.37 | 4.05 | 1.32 | 4.10 |
| 3 CWAD 13.0 | 5.14 | 1.17 | 3.97 | 1.48 | 3.66 | 1.37 | 3.77 | 1.32 | 3.82 |
| 3 CWAD | 4.95 | 1.17 | 3.78 | 1.48 | 3.47 | 1.37 | 3.58 | 1.32 | 3.63 |
| 4 CWAD | 4.49 | 1.17 | 3.32 | 1.48 | 3.01 | 1.37 | 3.12 | 1.32 | 3.17 |
| 5 CWAD | 4.06 | 1.17 | 2.89 | 1.48 | 2.58 | 1.37 | 2.69 | 1.32 | 2.74 |
| Feed barley | |||||||||
| 1 CW - Pool A | 3.16 | 1.52 | 1.64 | 1.44 | 1.72 | 1.25 | 1.91 | 1.20 | 1.96 |
| Designated barley | |||||||||
| Sel CW Two-Row | 4.53 | 1.27 | 3.26 | 1.44 | 3.09 | 1.25 | 3.28 | 1.26 | 3.27 |
| Sel CW Six-Row | 4.14 | 1.27 | 2.87 | 1.44 | 2.70 | 1.25 | 2.89 | 1.26 | 2.88 |
|
*Bushel figures may not be exact due to rounding conversions to two decimal points. Estimated deductions are based on tariff rates and include freight, country elevation and removal of dockage. Deductions will vary by delivery point. |
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