Farmers
Pool Return Outlooks
2009-10 crop year
DATE: September 24, 2009
Grain Values Decline in Latest CWB PRO for 2009-10
Winnipeg -- The CWB today released its latest Pool Return Outlook (PRO) for the 2009-10 crop year. The change to wheat PROs from August ranged from down $13 per tonne to up $3 per tonne, depending on grade and protein level. Milling durum PROs declined $25 per tonne. Malting barley is down $12 per tonne compared to August, while the Pool A feed barley PRO dropped by $9 per tonne.
| September PRO | August PRO | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009-10 | 2009-10 | |||
| - In store Vancouver or St. Lawrence - | ||||
| Tonne | Bushel | Tonne | Bushel | |
| Wheat | ||||
| 1 CWRS 14.5 | 263.00 | 7.16 | 260.00 | 7.08 |
| 1 CWRS 13.5 | 245.00 | 6.67 | 246.00 | 6.70 |
| 1 CWRS 12.5 | 231.00 | 6.29 | 236.00 | 6.42 |
| 1 CWRS 11.5 | 219.00 | 5.96 | 226.00 | 6.15 |
| 2 CWRS 13.5 | 238.00 | 6.48 | 240.00 | 6.53 |
| 2 CWRS 11.5 | 212.00 | 5.77 | 219.00 | 5.96 |
| 3 CWRS 13.0 | 216.00 | 5.88 | 222.00 | 6.04 |
| 3 CWRS | 197.00 | 5.36 | 208.00 | 5.66 |
| 4 CWRS | 183.00 | 4.98 | 187.00 | 5.09 |
| 1 CWHWS 13.5 | 245.00 | 6.67 | 246.00 | 6.70 |
| 1 CPSR | 197.00 | 5.36 | 203.00 | 5.52 |
| 1 CPSW | 194.00 | 5.28 | 203.00 | 5.52 |
| 1 CWRW Select 11.5 | 205.00 | 5.58 | 215.00 | 5.85 |
| 1 CWRW | 192.00 | 5.23 | 198.00 | 5.39 |
| 1 CWES | 215.00 | 5.85 | 216.00 | 5.88 |
| 1 CWSWS Select <9.9 | 185.00 | 5.03 | 198.00 | 5.39 |
| 1 CWSWS | 171.00 | 4.65 | 183.00 | 4.98 |
| CW Feed | 149.00 | 4.06 | 154.00 | 4.19 |
| Durum | ||||
| 1 CWAD 14.5 | 235.00 | 6.40 | 260.00 | 7.08 |
| 1 CWAD 13.0 | 224.00 | 6.10 | 249.00 | 6.78 |
| 1 CWAD 12.5 | 221.00 | 6.01 | 246.00 | 6.70 |
| 1 CWAD 11.5 | 214.00 | 5.82 | 239.00 | 6.50 |
| 2 CWAD 13.0 | 214.00 | 5.82 | 239.00 | 6.50 |
| 2 CWAD 11.5 | 207.00 | 5.63 | 232.00 | 6.31 |
| 3 CWAD 13.0 | 197.00 | 5.36 | 222.00 | 6.04 |
| 3 CWAD | 190.00 | 5.17 | 215.00 | 5.85 |
| 4 CWAD | 173.00 | 4.71 | 198.00 | 5.39 |
| 5 CWAD | 149.00 | 4.06 | 154.00 | 4.19 |
| Feed barley | ||||
| 1 CW - Pool A | 145.00 | 3.16 | 154.00 | 3.35 |
| Designated barley | ||||
| Sel CW Two-Row | 212.00 | 4.62 | 224.00 | 4.88 |
| Sel CW Six-Row | 194.00 | 4.22 | 206.00 | 4.49 |
| Note: PROs are the CWB's estimate of crop year returns. Farmers who use PROs to make marketing decisions are advised that unusual weather in importing or exporting countries and other changes in market conditions could dramatically affect the price forecasts. PROs are not price guarantees and should not be confused with initial payments. PROs also do not represent CWB offer values for prospective sales transactions nor sales values for actual transactions. | ||||
PRO Commentary
2009-10 crop year
Wheat
Until harvest is complete, considerable uncertainty remains about both the volume and quality of this year's crop. Despite a very late harvest, yield and quality expectations have improved significantly from a month ago. Commodity markets and currency relationships remain volatile, adding to the overall uncertainty typical of the harvest period.
The wheat market has been pressured over the past month by large global supplies and the ongoing harvest in the Northern Hemisphere. The U.S. wheat futures markets have dropped between 19 cents and 46 cents per bushel over the past month, and are now trading at levels similar to the beginning of 2007, before the historic grain price rally began. Protein premiums on hard red spring (HRS) wheat have moved higher given the lower-than-average protein levels of the U.S. HRS crop. The ongoing strength of the Canadian dollar continues to weigh down Canadian-dollar price outlooks.
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) increased its estimate for world wheat production to 664 million tonnes in the September World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE). Production forecasts were increased for the European Union, Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan.
In Canada, the spring wheat harvest has made good progress under ideal harvest weather conditions. The winter wheat harvest is now essentially finished, with the spring wheat harvest over 60-per-cent complete. In the U.S., the spring wheat harvest is now about 85-per-cent complete. Initial harvest results indicate a large yield but lower-than-normal protein in the U.S, while the quality of the Canadian crop is expected to be slightly above average. The winter wheat harvest in Europe is now complete. The spring wheat harvest is underway in Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan, but a near-term frost event could still downgrade crop quality.
Durum
Durum fundamentals have weakened since the last PRO, which has pressured international durum values lower. Generally good harvest conditions and higher-than-expected yields have increased the quality and quantity of North American durum crops. In the U.S., top-grade durum values are now below high-protein spring wheat values. The durum harvest remains slightly delayed in the U.S, although the past week allowed significant progress towards harvest completion. The harvest in North Dakota is about 70-per-cent complete, with Montana at 76-per-cent complete. In Canada, the durum harvest is three-quarters complete and the quality is above average.
Feed barley
Large supplies and weak international corn values continue to pressure global feed grain prices. There was a brief rally in corn futures prices in mid-September when frost was forecasted in the U.S. Cornbelt. However, prices were lowered once that risk had passed. In the September WASDE report, the USDA forecasted world corn production at a record 794 million tonnes and increased its 2009-10 U.S. corn production forecast to 329 million tonnes. Although global barley production and carry out are forecast to decline in 2009-10, large supplies of coarse grains and poor livestock economics are expected to weigh on feed grain prices.
Designated barley
Malting barley values have been pressured lower by large supplies of quality malting barley in Europe and the ongoing harvest in the Northern hemisphere. Canadian supplies of malting barley are expected to be lower due to a smaller crop. Conditions have been favourable for harvesting and the Canadian barley crop is now more than 85-per-cent harvested, with initial reports showing a wide variation in crop quality. The U.S. barley crop is now over 90-per-cent harvested. Adequate rainfall has been beneficial for the maturation of the Australian barley crop, which is about six weeks away from the start of harvest.
| 2009-10 AVERAGE POOL RETURN OUTLOOK BY PROVINCE | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (Cdn dollars per tonne) | |||||||||
| September | MB | SK | AB | BC | |||||
| PRO | Deduction | Return | Deduction | Return | Deduction | Return | Deduction | Return | |
| Wheat | |||||||||
| 1 CWRS 14.5 | 263.00 | 52.92 | 210.08 | 58.38 | 204.62 | 50.62 | 212.38 | 48.34 | 214.66 |
| 1 CWRS 13.5 | 245.00 | 52.92 | 192.08 | 58.38 | 186.62 | 50.62 | 194.38 | 48.34 | 196.66 |
| 1 CWRS 12.5 | 231.00 | 52.92 | 178.08 | 58.38 | 172.62 | 50.62 | 180.38 | 48.34 | 182.66 |
| 1 CWRS 11.5 | 219.00 | 52.92 | 166.08 | 58.38 | 160.62 | 50.62 | 168.38 | 48.34 | 170.66 |
| 2 CWRS 13.5 | 238.00 | 52.92 | 185.08 | 58.38 | 179.62 | 50.62 | 187.38 | 48.34 | 189.66 |
| 2 CWRS 11.5 | 212.00 | 52.92 | 159.08 | 58.38 | 153.62 | 50.62 | 161.38 | 48.34 | 163.66 |
| 3 CWRS 13.0 | 216.00 | 52.92 | 163.08 | 58.38 | 157.62 | 50.62 | 165.38 | 48.34 | 167.66 |
| 3 CWRS | 197.00 | 52.92 | 144.08 | 58.38 | 138.62 | 50.62 | 146.38 | 48.34 | 148.66 |
| 4 CWRS | 183.00 | 52.92 | 130.08 | 58.38 | 124.62 | 50.62 | 132.38 | 48.34 | 134.66 |
| 1 CWHWS 13.5 | 245.00 | 52.92 | 192.08 | 58.38 | 186.62 | 50.62 | 194.38 | 48.34 | 196.66 |
| 1 CPSR | 197.00 | 52.92 | 144.08 | 58.38 | 138.62 | 50.62 | 146.38 | 48.34 | 148.66 |
| 1 CPSW | 194.00 | 52.92 | 141.08 | 58.38 | 135.62 | 50.62 | 143.38 | 48.34 | 145.66 |
| 1 CWRW Select 11.5 | 205.00 | 58.78 | 146.22 | 61.24 | 143.76 | 50.12 | 154.88 | 48.28 | 156.72 |
| 1 CWRW | 192.00 | 58.78 | 133.22 | 61.24 | 130.76 | 50.12 | 141.88 | 48.28 | 143.72 |
| 1 CWES | 215.00 | 57.01 | 157.99 | 57.23 | 157.77 | 50.79 | 164.21 | 48.34 | 166.66 |
| 1 CWSWS Select <9.9 | 185.00 | 52.92 | 132.08 | 58.38 | 126.62 | 50.62 | 134.38 | 48.34 | 136.66 |
| 1 CWSWS | 171.00 | 52.92 | 118.08 | 58.38 | 112.62 | 50.62 | 120.38 | 48.34 | 122.66 |
| CW Feed | 149.00 | 52.92 | 96.08 | 58.38 | 90.62 | 50.62 | 98.38 | 48.34 | 100.66 |
| Durum | |||||||||
| 1 CWAD 14.5 | 235.00 | 43.05 | 191.95 | 54.44 | 180.56 | 50.37 | 184.63 | 48.28 | 186.72 |
| 1 CWAD 13.0 | 224.00 | 43.05 | 180.95 | 54.44 | 169.56 | 50.37 | 173.63 | 48.28 | 175.72 |
| 1 CWAD 12.5 | 221.00 | 43.05 | 177.95 | 54.44 | 166.56 | 50.37 | 170.63 | 48.28 | 172.72 |
| 1 CWAD 11.5 | 214.00 | 43.05 | 170.95 | 54.44 | 159.56 | 50.37 | 163.63 | 48.28 | 165.72 |
| 2 CWAD 13.0 | 214.00 | 43.05 | 170.95 | 54.44 | 159.56 | 50.37 | 163.63 | 48.28 | 165.72 |
| 2 CWAD 11.5 | 207.00 | 43.05 | 163.95 | 54.44 | 152.56 | 50.37 | 156.63 | 48.28 | 158.72 |
| 3 CWAD 13.0 | 197.00 | 43.05 | 153.95 | 54.44 | 142.56 | 50.37 | 146.63 | 48.28 | 148.72 |
| 3 CWAD | 190.00 | 43.05 | 146.95 | 54.44 | 135.56 | 50.37 | 139.63 | 48.28 | 141.72 |
| 4 CWAD | 173.00 | 43.05 | 129.95 | 54.44 | 118.56 | 50.37 | 122.63 | 48.28 | 124.72 |
| 5 CWAD | 149.00 | 43.05 | 105.95 | 54.44 | 94.56 | 50.37 | 98.63 | 48.28 | 100.72 |
| Feed barley | |||||||||
| 1 CW - Pool A | 145.00 | 69.36 | 75.64 | 66.11 | 78.89 | 57.16 | 87.84 | 54.65 | 90.35 |
| Designated barley | |||||||||
| Sel CW Two-Row | 212.00 | 58.14 | 153.86 | 66.19 | 145.81 | 57.10 | 154.90 | 57.56 | 154.44 |
| Sel CW Six-Row | 194.00 | 58.14 | 135.86 | 66.19 | 127.81 | 57.10 | 136.90 | 57.56 | 136.44 |
|
Estimated deductions are based on tariff rates and include freight, country elevation and removal of dockage. Deductions will vary by delivery point. |
|||||||||
| 2009-10 AVERAGE POOL RETURN OUTLOOK BY PROVINCE | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (Cdn dollars per bushel*) | |||||||||
| September | MB | SK | AB | BC | |||||
| PRO | Deduction | Return | Deduction | Return | Deduction | Return | Deduction | Return | |
| Wheat | |||||||||
| 1 CWRS 14.5 | 7.16 | 1.44 | 5.72 | 1.59 | 5.57 | 1.38 | 5.78 | 1.32 | 5.84 |
| 1 CWRS 13.5 | 6.67 | 1.44 | 5.23 | 1.59 | 5.08 | 1.38 | 5.29 | 1.32 | 5.35 |
| 1 CWRS 12.5 | 6.29 | 1.44 | 4.85 | 1.59 | 4.70 | 1.38 | 4.91 | 1.32 | 4.97 |
| 1 CWRS 11.5 | 5.96 | 1.44 | 4.52 | 1.59 | 4.37 | 1.38 | 4.58 | 1.32 | 4.64 |
| 2 CWRS 13.5 | 6.48 | 1.44 | 5.04 | 1.59 | 4.89 | 1.38 | 5.10 | 1.32 | 5.16 |
| 2 CWRS 11.5 | 5.77 | 1.44 | 4.33 | 1.59 | 4.18 | 1.38 | 4.39 | 1.32 | 4.45 |
| 3 CWRS 13.0 | 5.88 | 1.44 | 4.44 | 1.59 | 4.29 | 1.38 | 4.50 | 1.32 | 4.56 |
| 3 CWRS | 5.36 | 1.44 | 3.92 | 1.59 | 3.77 | 1.38 | 3.98 | 1.32 | 4.04 |
| 4 CWRS | 4.98 | 1.44 | 3.54 | 1.59 | 3.39 | 1.38 | 3.60 | 1.32 | 3.66 |
| 1 CWHWS 13.5 | 6.67 | 1.44 | 5.23 | 1.59 | 5.08 | 1.38 | 5.29 | 1.32 | 5.35 |
| 1 CPSR | 5.36 | 1.44 | 3.92 | 1.59 | 3.77 | 1.38 | 3.98 | 1.32 | 4.04 |
| 1 CPSW | 5.28 | 1.44 | 3.84 | 1.59 | 3.69 | 1.38 | 3.90 | 1.32 | 3.96 |
| 1 CWRW Select 11.5 | 5.58 | 1.60 | 3.98 | 1.67 | 3.91 | 1.36 | 4.22 | 1.31 | 4.27 |
| 1 CWRW | 5.23 | 1.60 | 3.63 | 1.67 | 3.56 | 1.36 | 3.87 | 1.31 | 3.92 |
| 1 CWES | 5.85 | 1.55 | 4.30 | 1.56 | 4.29 | 1.38 | 4.47 | 1.32 | 4.53 |
| 1 CWSWS Select <9.9 | 5.03 | 1.44 | 3.59 | 1.59 | 3.44 | 1.38 | 3.65 | 1.32 | 3.71 |
| 1 CWSWS | 4.65 | 1.44 | 3.21 | 1.59 | 3.06 | 1.38 | 3.27 | 1.32 | 3.33 |
| CW Feed | 4.06 | 1.44 | 2.62 | 1.59 | 2.47 | 1.38 | 2.68 | 1.32 | 2.74 |
| Durum | |||||||||
| 1 CWAD 14.5 | 6.40 | 1.17 | 5.23 | 1.48 | 4.92 | 1.37 | 5.03 | 1.31 | 5.09 |
| 1 CWAD 13.0 | 6.10 | 1.17 | 4.93 | 1.48 | 4.62 | 1.37 | 4.73 | 1.31 | 4.79 |
| 1 CWAD 12.5 | 6.01 | 1.17 | 4.84 | 1.48 | 4.53 | 1.37 | 4.64 | 1.31 | 4.70 |
| 1 CWAD 11.5 | 5.82 | 1.17 | 4.65 | 1.48 | 4.34 | 1.37 | 4.45 | 1.31 | 4.51 |
| 2 CWAD 13.0 | 5.82 | 1.17 | 4.65 | 1.48 | 4.34 | 1.37 | 4.45 | 1.31 | 4.51 |
| 2 CWAD 11.5 | 5.63 | 1.17 | 4.46 | 1.48 | 4.15 | 1.37 | 4.26 | 1.31 | 4.32 |
| 3 CWAD 13.0 | 5.36 | 1.17 | 4.19 | 1.48 | 3.88 | 1.37 | 3.99 | 1.31 | 4.05 |
| 3 CWAD | 5.17 | 1.17 | 4.00 | 1.48 | 3.69 | 1.37 | 3.80 | 1.31 | 3.86 |
| 4 CWAD | 4.71 | 1.17 | 3.54 | 1.48 | 3.23 | 1.37 | 3.34 | 1.31 | 3.40 |
| 5 CWAD | 4.06 | 1.17 | 2.89 | 1.48 | 2.58 | 1.37 | 2.69 | 1.31 | 2.75 |
| Feed barley | |||||||||
| 1 CW - Pool A | 3.16 | 1.51 | 1.65 | 1.44 | 1.72 | 1.24 | 1.92 | 1.19 | 1.97 |
| Designated barley | |||||||||
| Sel CW Two-Row | 4.62 | 1.27 | 3.35 | 1.44 | 3.18 | 1.24 | 3.38 | 1.25 | 3.37 |
| Sel CW Six-Row | 4.22 | 1.27 | 2.95 | 1.44 | 2.78 | 1.24 | 2.98 | 1.25 | 2.97 |
|
*Bushel figures may not be exact due to rounding conversions to two decimal points. Estimated deductions are based on tariff rates and include freight, country elevation and removal of dockage. Deductions will vary by delivery point. |
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