Farmers
Pool Return Outlooks
2008-09 crop year
DATE: March 26, 2009
Wheat, Durum and Barley Values Mostly Unchanged in Latest CWB PRO for 2008-09
Winnipeg -- The CWB today released its March 2009 Pool Return Outlook (PRO) for the 2008-09 crop year, showing only minor changes in values from last month for wheat, durum and malting barley. Wheat values range from unchanged to up $1 per tonne from the February PRO, depending on grade. Milling durum values range from up $2 per tonne to down $3 per tonne. Malting barley values are unchanged, while Pool B feed barley has dropped by $3 per tonne from last month.
| March PRO | February PRO | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008-09 | 2008-09 | |||
| - In store Vancouver or St. Lawrence - | ||||
| Tonne | Bushel | Tonne | Bushel | |
| Wheat | ||||
| 1 CWRS 14.5 | 326.00 | 8.87 | 325.00 | 8.85 |
| 1 CWRS 13.5 | 308.00 | 8.38 | 307.00 | 8.36 |
| 1 CWRS 12.5 | 298.00 | 8.11 | 297.00 | 8.08 |
| 1 CWRS 11.5 | 288.00 | 7.84 | 287.00 | 7.81 |
| 2 CWRS 13.5 | 298.00 | 8.11 | 297.00 | 8.08 |
| 2 CWRS 11.5 | 279.00 | 7.59 | 278.00 | 7.57 |
| 3 CWRS 13.0 | 283.00 | 7.70 | 282.00 | 7.67 |
| 3 CWRS | 266.00 | 7.24 | 266.00 | 7.24 |
| 4 CWRS | 254.00 | 6.91 | 254.00 | 6.91 |
| 1 CWHWS 13.5 | 308.00 | 8.38 | 307.00 | 8.36 |
| 1 CPSR | 259.00 | 7.05 | 258.00 | 7.02 |
| 1 CPSW | 259.00 | 7.05 | 258.00 | 7.02 |
| 1 CWRW Select 11.5 | 269.00 | 7.32 | 268.00 | 7.29 |
| 1 CWRW | 249.00 | 6.78 | 248.00 | 6.75 |
| 1 CWES | 278.00 | 7.57 | 277.00 | 7.54 |
| 1 CWSWS Select <9.9 | 256.00 | 6.97 | 255.00 | 6.94 |
| 1 CWSWS | 228.00 | 6.21 | 227.00 | 6.18 |
| CW Feed | 196.00 | 5.33 | 196.00 | 5.33 |
| Durum | ||||
| 1 CWAD 14.5 | 372.00 | 10.12 | 371.00 | 10.10 |
| 1 CWAD 13.0 | 362.00 | 9.85 | 360.00 | 9.80 |
| 1 CWAD 12.5 | 359.00 | 9.77 | 357.00 | 9.72 |
| 1 CWAD 11.5 | 356.00 | 9.69 | 354.00 | 9.63 |
| 2 CWAD 13.0 | 344.00 | 9.36 | 347.00 | 9.44 |
| 2 CWAD 11.5 | 339.00 | 9.23 | 342.00 | 9.31 |
| 3 CWAD 13.0 | 329.00 | 8.95 | 332.00 | 9.04 |
| 3 CWAD | 322.00 | 8.76 | 325.00 | 8.85 |
| 4 CWAD | 296.00 | 8.06 | 301.00 | 8.19 |
| 5 CWAD | 196.00 | 5.33 | 196.00 | 5.33 |
| Feed barley | ||||
| 1 CW - Pool B | 166.00 | 3.61 | 169.00 | 3.68 |
| Designated barley | ||||
| Sel CW Two-Row | 320.00 | 6.97 | 320.00 | 6.97 |
| Sel CW Six-Row | 300.00 | 6.53 | 300.00 | 6.53 |
| Note: PROs are the CWB's estimate of crop year returns. Farmers who use PROs to make marketing decisions are advised that unusual weather in importing or exporting countries and other changes in market conditions could dramatically affect the price forecasts. PROs are not price guarantees and should not be confused with initial payments. PROs also do not represent CWB offer values for prospective sales transactions nor sales values for actual transactions. | ||||
PRO Commentary
2008-09 crop year
Wheat
U.S. wheat futures have remained extremely volatile on a day-to-day basis. Throughout the month, futures values showed some strengthening, but in the past few days those gains have been lost. International values, however, were pressured last month due to continued exports from the EU and Black Sea region. As the size of the unsold portion of the pool decreases, current price changes will have less significance for the PRO.
Durum
International durum prices have dropped substantially in the past month. High durum prices have rationed some demand as millers add lower-cost spring wheat into their mix. In the past month, while wheat prices have remained relatively stable, the premium for durum wheat has narrowed significantly. Mexican new-crop durum is now being offered into the export market at volumes greater than expected earlier, which has added pressure to durum prices this month.
Feed barley
Global feed barley prices moved lower this week. Large supplies of barley, feed wheat and corn, combined with weakening livestock demand, have put pressure on feed grain prices. Uncertainty about available Argentine corn supplies has provided some support to the feed grain complex.
Designated barley
Global malting barley prices weakened this month, as large supplies outweighed demand. However, at this stage in the marketing year, the pool is well sold, and the impact of market price declines on the old-crop PRO is moderate.
| 2008-09 AVERAGE POOL RETURN OUTLOOK BY PROVINCE | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (Cdn dollars per tonne) | |||||||||
| March | MB | SK | AB | BC | |||||
| PRO | Deduction | Return | Deduction | Return | Deduction | Return | Deduction | Return | |
| Wheat | |||||||||
| 1 CWRS 14.5 | 326.00 | 55.31 | 270.69 | 60.94 | 265.06 | 53.11 | 272.89 | 49.81 | 276.19 |
| 1 CWRS 13.5 | 308.00 | 55.31 | 252.69 | 60.94 | 247.06 | 53.11 | 254.89 | 49.81 | 258.19 |
| 1 CWRS 12.5 | 298.00 | 55.31 | 242.69 | 60.94 | 237.06 | 53.11 | 244.89 | 49.81 | 248.19 |
| 1 CWRS 11.5 | 288.00 | 55.31 | 232.69 | 60.94 | 227.06 | 53.11 | 234.89 | 49.81 | 238.19 |
| 2 CWRS 13.5 | 298.00 | 55.31 | 242.69 | 60.94 | 237.06 | 53.11 | 244.89 | 49.81 | 248.19 |
| 2 CWRS 11.5 | 279.00 | 55.31 | 223.69 | 60.94 | 218.06 | 53.11 | 225.89 | 49.81 | 229.19 |
| 3 CWRS 13.0 | 283.00 | 55.31 | 227.69 | 60.94 | 222.06 | 53.11 | 229.89 | 49.81 | 233.19 |
| 3 CWRS | 266.00 | 55.31 | 210.69 | 60.94 | 205.06 | 53.11 | 212.89 | 49.81 | 216.19 |
| 4 CWRS | 254.00 | 55.31 | 198.69 | 60.94 | 193.06 | 53.11 | 200.89 | 49.81 | 204.19 |
| 1 CWHWS 13.5 | 308.00 | 55.31 | 252.69 | 60.94 | 247.06 | 53.11 | 254.89 | 49.81 | 258.19 |
| 1 CPSR | 259.00 | 55.31 | 203.69 | 60.94 | 198.06 | 53.11 | 205.89 | 49.81 | 209.19 |
| 1 CPSW | 259.00 | 55.31 | 203.69 | 60.94 | 198.06 | 53.11 | 205.89 | 49.81 | 209.19 |
| 1 CWRW Select 11.5 | 269.00 | 55.31 | 213.69 | 60.94 | 208.06 | 53.11 | 215.89 | 49.81 | 219.19 |
| 1 CWRW | 249.00 | 55.31 | 193.69 | 60.94 | 188.06 | 53.11 | 195.89 | 49.81 | 199.19 |
| 1 CWES | 278.00 | 58.19 | 219.81 | 60.62 | 217.38 | 51.97 | 226.03 | 49.81 | 228.19 |
| 1 CWSWS Select <9.9 | 256.00 | 55.31 | 200.69 | 60.94 | 195.06 | 53.11 | 202.89 | 49.81 | 206.19 |
| 1 CWSWS | 228.00 | 55.31 | 172.69 | 60.94 | 167.06 | 53.11 | 174.89 | 49.81 | 178.19 |
| CW Feed | 196.00 | 55.31 | 140.69 | 60.94 | 135.06 | 53.11 | 142.89 | 49.81 | 146.19 |
| Durum | |||||||||
| 1 CWAD 14.5 | 372.00 | 48.44 | 323.56 | 57.87 | 314.13 | 54.26 | 317.74 | 49.87 | 322.13 |
| 1 CWAD 13.0 | 362.00 | 48.44 | 313.56 | 57.87 | 304.13 | 54.26 | 307.74 | 49.87 | 312.13 |
| 1 CWAD 12.5 | 359.00 | 48.44 | 310.56 | 57.87 | 301.13 | 54.26 | 304.74 | 49.87 | 309.13 |
| 1 CWAD 11.5 | 356.00 | 48.44 | 307.56 | 57.87 | 298.13 | 54.26 | 301.74 | 49.87 | 306.13 |
| 2 CWAD 13.0 | 344.00 | 48.44 | 295.56 | 57.87 | 286.13 | 54.26 | 289.74 | 49.87 | 294.13 |
| 2 CWAD 11.5 | 339.00 | 48.44 | 290.56 | 57.87 | 281.13 | 54.26 | 284.74 | 49.87 | 289.13 |
| 3 CWAD 13.0 | 329.00 | 48.44 | 280.56 | 57.87 | 271.13 | 54.26 | 274.74 | 49.87 | 279.13 |
| 3 CWAD | 322.00 | 48.44 | 273.56 | 57.87 | 264.13 | 54.26 | 267.74 | 49.87 | 272.13 |
| 4 CWAD | 296.00 | 48.44 | 247.56 | 57.87 | 238.13 | 54.26 | 241.74 | 49.87 | 246.13 |
| 5 CWAD | 196.00 | 48.44 | 147.56 | 57.87 | 138.13 | 54.26 | 141.74 | 49.87 | 146.13 |
| Feed barley | |||||||||
| 1 CW - Pool B | 166.00 | 76.79 | 89.21 | 68.60 | 97.40 | 56.85 | 109.15 | 53.68 | 112.32 |
| Designated barley | |||||||||
| Sel CW Two-Row | 320.00 | 59.76 | 260.24 | 67.29 | 252.71 | 58.11 | 261.89 | 56.29 | 263.71 |
| Sel CW Six-Row | 300.00 | 59.76 | 240.24 | 67.29 | 232.71 | 58.11 | 241.89 | 56.29 | 243.71 |
|
Estimated deductions are based on tariff rates and include freight, country elevation and removal of dockage. Deductions will vary by delivery point. |
|||||||||
| 2008-09 AVERAGE POOL RETURN OUTLOOK BY PROVINCE | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (Cdn dollars per bushel*) | |||||||||
| March | MB | SK | AB | BC | |||||
| PRO | Deduction | Return | Deduction | Return | Deduction | Return | Deduction | Return | |
| Wheat | |||||||||
| 1 CWRS 14.5 | 8.87 | 1.51 | 7.36 | 1.66 | 7.21 | 1.45 | 7.42 | 1.36 | 7.51 |
| 1 CWRS 13.5 | 8.38 | 1.51 | 6.87 | 1.66 | 6.72 | 1.45 | 6.93 | 1.36 | 7.02 |
| 1 CWRS 12.5 | 8.11 | 1.51 | 6.60 | 1.66 | 6.45 | 1.45 | 6.66 | 1.36 | 6.75 |
| 1 CWRS 11.5 | 7.84 | 1.51 | 6.33 | 1.66 | 6.18 | 1.45 | 6.39 | 1.36 | 6.48 |
| 2 CWRS 13.5 | 8.11 | 1.51 | 6.60 | 1.66 | 6.45 | 1.45 | 6.66 | 1.36 | 6.75 |
| 2 CWRS 11.5 | 7.59 | 1.51 | 6.08 | 1.66 | 5.93 | 1.45 | 6.14 | 1.36 | 6.23 |
| 3 CWRS 13.0 | 7.70 | 1.51 | 6.19 | 1.66 | 6.04 | 1.45 | 6.25 | 1.36 | 6.34 |
| 3 CWRS | 7.24 | 1.51 | 5.73 | 1.66 | 5.58 | 1.45 | 5.79 | 1.36 | 5.88 |
| 4 CWRS | 6.91 | 1.51 | 5.40 | 1.66 | 5.25 | 1.45 | 5.46 | 1.36 | 5.55 |
| 1 CWHWS 13.5 | 8.38 | 1.51 | 6.87 | 1.66 | 6.72 | 1.45 | 6.93 | 1.36 | 7.02 |
| 1 CPSR | 7.05 | 1.51 | 5.54 | 1.66 | 5.39 | 1.45 | 5.60 | 1.36 | 5.69 |
| 1 CPSW | 7.05 | 1.51 | 5.54 | 1.66 | 5.39 | 1.45 | 5.60 | 1.36 | 5.69 |
| 1 CWRW Select 11.5 | 7.32 | 1.51 | 5.81 | 1.66 | 5.66 | 1.45 | 5.87 | 1.36 | 5.96 |
| 1 CWRW | 6.78 | 1.51 | 5.27 | 1.66 | 5.12 | 1.45 | 5.33 | 1.36 | 5.42 |
| 1 CWES | 7.57 | 1.58 | 5.99 | 1.65 | 5.92 | 1.41 | 6.16 | 1.36 | 6.21 |
| 1 CWSWS Select <9.9 | 6.97 | 1.51 | 5.46 | 1.66 | 5.31 | 1.45 | 5.52 | 1.36 | 5.61 |
| 1 CWSWS | 6.21 | 1.51 | 4.70 | 1.66 | 4.55 | 1.45 | 4.76 | 1.36 | 4.85 |
| CW Feed | 5.33 | 1.51 | 3.82 | 1.66 | 3.67 | 1.45 | 3.88 | 1.36 | 3.97 |
| Durum | |||||||||
| 1 CWAD 14.5 | 10.12 | 1.32 | 8.80 | 1.57 | 8.55 | 1.48 | 8.64 | 1.36 | 8.76 |
| 1 CWAD 13.0 | 9.85 | 1.32 | 8.53 | 1.57 | 8.28 | 1.48 | 8.37 | 1.36 | 8.49 |
| 1 CWAD 12.5 | 9.77 | 1.32 | 8.45 | 1.57 | 8.20 | 1.48 | 8.29 | 1.36 | 8.41 |
| 1 CWAD 11.5 | 9.69 | 1.32 | 8.37 | 1.57 | 8.12 | 1.48 | 8.21 | 1.36 | 8.33 |
| 2 CWAD 13.0 | 9.36 | 1.32 | 8.04 | 1.57 | 7.79 | 1.48 | 7.88 | 1.36 | 8.00 |
| 2 CWAD 11.5 | 9.23 | 1.32 | 7.91 | 1.57 | 7.66 | 1.48 | 7.75 | 1.36 | 7.87 |
| 3 CWAD 13.0 | 8.95 | 1.32 | 7.63 | 1.57 | 7.38 | 1.48 | 7.47 | 1.36 | 7.59 |
| 3 CWAD | 8.76 | 1.32 | 7.44 | 1.57 | 7.19 | 1.48 | 7.28 | 1.36 | 7.40 |
| 4 CWAD | 8.06 | 1.32 | 6.74 | 1.57 | 6.49 | 1.48 | 6.58 | 1.36 | 6.70 |
| 5 CWAD | 5.33 | 1.32 | 4.01 | 1.57 | 3.76 | 1.48 | 3.85 | 1.36 | 3.97 |
| Feed barley | |||||||||
| 1 CW - Pool B | 3.61 | 1.67 | 1.94 | 1.49 | 2.12 | 1.24 | 2.37 | 1.17 | 2.44 |
| Designated barley | |||||||||
| Sel CW Two-Row | 6.97 | 1.30 | 5.67 | 1.47 | 5.50 | 1.27 | 5.70 | 1.23 | 5.74 |
| Sel CW Six-Row | 6.53 | 1.30 | 5.23 | 1.47 | 5.06 | 1.27 | 5.26 | 1.23 | 5.30 |
|
*Bushel figures may not be exact due to rounding conversions to two decimal points. Estimated deductions are based on tariff rates and include freight, country elevation and removal of dockage. Deductions will vary by delivery point. |
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