Farmers
Pool Return Outlooks
2004-05 crop year
DATE: September 22, 2005
2004-05 CWB PROs Close Mainly Higher
Winnipeg -- The CWB today released its last Pool Return Outlook (PRO) for the 2004-05 crop year. Wheat PROs range from unchanged to $1 per tonne higher than the July PRO, while durum is $1 to $2 per tonne higher. The Pool B feed barley PRO is unchanged and malting barley PROs are up $1 per tonne from the July PRO.
| September PRO | July PRO | |||
| 2004-05 | 2004-05 | |||
| - In store Vancouver or St. Lawrence - | ||||
| Tonne | Bushel | Tonne | Bushel | |
| Wheat | ||||
| 1 CWRS 14.5 | 221.00 | 6.01 | 220.00 | 5.99 |
| 1 CWRS 13.5 | 204.00 | 5.55 | 203.00 | 5.52 |
| 1 CWRS 12.5 | 195.00 | 5.31 | 194.00 | 5.28 |
| 1 CWRS 11.5 | 188.00 | 5.12 | 187.00 | 5.09 |
| 2 CWRS 13.5 | 194.00 | 5.28 | 193.00 | 5.25 |
| 2 CWRS 11.5 | 179.00 | 4.87 | 178.00 | 4.84 |
| 3 CWRS 13.0 | 174.00 | 4.74 | 173.00 | 4.71 |
| 3 CWRS | 165.00 | 4.49 | 164.00 | 4.46 |
| 4 CWRS | 130.00 | 3.54 | 129.00 | 3.51 |
| 1 CWHW 13.5 | 204.00 | 5.55 | 203.00 | 5.52 |
| 1 CPSR | 156.00 | 4.25 | 155.00 | 4.22 |
| 1 CPSW | 170.00 | 4.63 | 169.00 | 4.60 |
| 1 CWRW | 155.00 | 4.22 | 154.00 | 4.19 |
| 1 CWES | 170.00 | 4.63 | 169.00 | 4.60 |
| 1 CWSWS | 186.00 | 5.06 | 185.00 | 5.03 |
| CW Feed | 120.00 | 3.27 | 119.00 | 3.24 |
| Durum | ||||
| 1 CWAD 14.5 | 231.00 | 6.29 | 230.00 | 6.26 |
| 1 CWAD 13.0 | 214.00 | 5.82 | 213.00 | 5.80 |
| 1 CWAD 12.5 | 209.00 | 5.69 | 208.00 | 5.66 |
| 1 CWAD 11.5 | 200.00 | 5.44 | 199.00 | 5.42 |
| 2 CWAD 13.0 | 202.00 | 5.50 | 201.00 | 5.47 |
| 2 CWAD 11.5 | 194.00 | 5.28 | 193.00 | 5.25 |
| 3 CWAD 13.0 | 181.00 | 4.93 | 179.00 | 4.87 |
| 3 CWAD | 175.00 | 4.76 | 173.00 | 4.71 |
| 4 CWAD | 155.00 | 4.22 | 154.00 | 4.19 |
| 5 CWAD | 115.00 | 3.13 | 114.00 | 3.10 |
| Feed barley | ||||
| 1 CW - Pool B | 129.00 | 2.81 | 129.00 | 2.81 |
| Designated barley | ||||
| SS CW Two-Row | 179.00 | 3.90 | 178.00 | 3.88 |
| Std Sel Two-Row | 174.00 | 3.79 | 173.00 | 3.77 |
| SS CW Six-Row | 166.00 | 3.61 | 165.00 | 3.59 |
| Std Sel Six-Row | 161.00 | 3.51 | 160.00 | 3.48 |
| Note: PROs are the CWB's estimate of crop year returns. Farmers who use PROs to make marketing decisions are advised that unusual weather in importing or exporting countries and other changes in market conditions could dramatically affect the price forecasts. PROs are not price guarantees and should not be confused with initial payments. PROs also do not represent CWB offer values for prospective sales transactions nor sales values for actual transactions. | ||||
PRO Commentary
2004-05 crop year
Wheat
Concern about U.S. wheat harvest quality in the late summer period was generally supportive of global wheat prices.
Durum
Decreased production in North Africa and Europe led to steady global demand through the summer period, which has maintained prices and supported pool returns.
Feed barley
Lower ocean freight costs and light competition from Black Sea and European barley supplies over the past few months have afforded western Canadian barley some relatively positive export opportunities.
Designated barley
Limited old-crop supplies of malting quality barley in Canada and Australia have been supportive of values in the last part of the marketing period.
| 2004-05 AVERAGE POOL RETURN OUTLOOK BY PROVINCE | |||||||||
| (Cdn dollars per tonne) | |||||||||
| September | MB | SK | AB | BC | |||||
| PRO | Deduction | Return | Deduction | Return | Deduction | Return | Deduction | Return | |
| Wheat | |||||||||
| 1 CWRS 14.5 | 221.00 | 51.59 | 169.41 | 54.48 | 166.52 | 45.65 | 175.35 | 43.96 | 177.04 |
| 1 CWRS 13.5 | 204.00 | 51.59 | 152.41 | 54.48 | 149.52 | 45.65 | 158.35 | 43.96 | 160.04 |
| 1 CWRS 12.5 | 195.00 | 51.59 | 143.41 | 54.48 | 140.52 | 45.65 | 149.35 | 43.96 | 151.04 |
| 1 CWRS 11.5 | 188.00 | 51.59 | 136.41 | 54.48 | 133.52 | 45.65 | 142.35 | 43.96 | 144.04 |
| 2 CWRS 13.5 | 194.00 | 51.59 | 142.41 | 54.48 | 139.52 | 45.65 | 148.35 | 43.96 | 150.04 |
| 2 CWRS 11.5 | 179.00 | 51.59 | 127.41 | 54.48 | 124.52 | 45.65 | 133.35 | 43.96 | 135.04 |
| 3 CWRS 13.0 | 174.00 | 51.59 | 122.41 | 54.48 | 119.52 | 45.65 | 128.35 | 43.96 | 130.04 |
| 3 CWRS | 165.00 | 51.59 | 113.41 | 54.48 | 110.52 | 45.65 | 119.35 | 43.96 | 121.04 |
| 4 CWRS | 130.00 | 51.59 | 78.41 | 54.48 | 75.52 | 45.65 | 84.35 | 43.96 | 86.04 |
| 1 CWHW 13.5 | 204.00 | 51.59 | 152.41 | 54.48 | 149.52 | 45.65 | 158.35 | 43.96 | 160.04 |
| 1 CPSR | 156.00 | 51.59 | 104.41 | 54.48 | 101.52 | 45.65 | 110.35 | 43.96 | 112.04 |
| 1 CPSW | 170.00 | 51.59 | 118.41 | 54.48 | 115.52 | 45.65 | 124.35 | 43.96 | 126.04 |
| 1 CWRW | 155.00 | 51.59 | 103.41 | 54.48 | 100.52 | 45.65 | 109.35 | 43.96 | 111.04 |
| 1 CWES | 170.00 | 53.72 | 116.28 | 55.75 | 114.25 | 44.57 | 125.43 | 43.96 | 126.04 |
| 1 CWSWS | 186.00 | 51.59 | 134.41 | 54.48 | 131.52 | 45.65 | 140.35 | 43.96 | 142.04 |
| CW Feed | 120.00 | 51.59 | 68.41 | 54.48 | 65.52 | 45.65 | 74.35 | 43.96 | 76.04 |
| Durum | |||||||||
| 1 CWAD 14.5 | 231.00 | 40.05 | 190.95 | 47.98 | 183.02 | 45.31 | 185.69 | 44.00 | 187.00 |
| 1 CWAD 13.0 | 214.00 | 40.05 | 173.95 | 47.98 | 166.02 | 45.31 | 168.69 | 44.00 | 170.00 |
| 1 CWAD 12.5 | 209.00 | 40.05 | 168.95 | 47.98 | 161.02 | 45.31 | 163.69 | 44.00 | 165.00 |
| 1 CWAD 11.5 | 200.00 | 40.05 | 159.95 | 47.98 | 152.02 | 45.31 | 154.69 | 44.00 | 156.00 |
| 2 CWAD 13.0 | 202.00 | 40.05 | 161.95 | 47.98 | 154.02 | 45.31 | 156.69 | 44.00 | 158.00 |
| 2 CWAD 11.5 | 194.00 | 40.05 | 153.95 | 47.98 | 146.02 | 45.31 | 148.69 | 44.00 | 150.00 |
| 3 CWAD 13.0 | 181.00 | 40.05 | 140.95 | 47.98 | 133.02 | 45.31 | 135.69 | 44.00 | 137.00 |
| 3 CWAD | 175.00 | 40.05 | 134.95 | 47.98 | 127.02 | 45.31 | 129.69 | 44.00 | 131.00 |
| 4 CWAD | 155.00 | 40.05 | 114.95 | 47.98 | 107.02 | 45.31 | 109.69 | 44.00 | 111.00 |
| 5 CWAD | 115.00 | 40.05 | 74.95 | 47.98 | 67.02 | 45.31 | 69.69 | 44.00 | 71.00 |
| Feed barley | |||||||||
| 1 CW - Pool B | 129.00 | 64.89 | 64.11 | 58.80 | 70.20 | 50.70 | 78.30 | 47.68 | 81.32 |
| Designated barley | |||||||||
| SS CW Two-Row | 179.00 | 53.00 | 126.00 | 58.50 | 120.50 | 50.88 | 128.12 | 50.08 | 128.92 |
| Std Sel Two-Row | 174.00 | 53.00 | 121.00 | 58.50 | 115.50 | 50.88 | 123.12 | 50.08 | 123.92 |
| SS CW Six-Row | 166.00 | 53.00 | 113.00 | 58.50 | 107.50 | 50.88 | 115.12 | 50.08 | 115.92 |
| Std Sel Six-Row | 161.00 | 53.00 | 108.00 | 58.50 | 102.50 | 50.88 | 110.12 | 50.08 | 110.92 |
|
Estimated deductions are based on tariff rates and include freight, country elevation and removal of dockage. Deductions will vary by delivery point. |
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| 2004-05 AVERAGE POOL RETURN OUTLOOK BY PROVINCE | |||||||||
| (Cdn dollars per bushel*) | |||||||||
| September | MB | SK | AB | BC | |||||
| PRO | Deduction | Return | Deduction | Return | Deduction | Return | Deduction | Return | |
| Wheat | |||||||||
| 1 CWRS 14.5 | 6.01 | 1.40 | 4.61 | 1.48 | 4.53 | 1.24 | 4.77 | 1.20 | 4.81 |
| 1 CWRS 13.5 | 5.55 | 1.40 | 4.15 | 1.48 | 4.07 | 1.24 | 4.31 | 1.20 | 4.35 |
| 1 CWRS 12.5 | 5.31 | 1.40 | 3.91 | 1.48 | 3.83 | 1.24 | 4.07 | 1.20 | 4.11 |
| 1 CWRS 11.5 | 5.12 | 1.40 | 3.72 | 1.48 | 3.64 | 1.24 | 3.88 | 1.20 | 3.92 |
| 2 CWRS 13.5 | 5.28 | 1.40 | 3.88 | 1.48 | 3.80 | 1.24 | 4.04 | 1.20 | 4.08 |
| 2 CWRS 11.5 | 4.87 | 1.40 | 3.47 | 1.48 | 3.39 | 1.24 | 3.63 | 1.20 | 3.67 |
| 3 CWRS 13.0 | 4.74 | 1.40 | 3.34 | 1.48 | 3.26 | 1.24 | 3.50 | 1.20 | 3.54 |
| 3 CWRS | 4.49 | 1.40 | 3.09 | 1.48 | 3.01 | 1.24 | 3.25 | 1.20 | 3.29 |
| 4 CWRS | 3.54 | 1.40 | 2.14 | 1.48 | 2.06 | 1.24 | 2.30 | 1.20 | 2.34 |
| 1 CWHW 13.5 | 5.55 | 1.40 | 4.15 | 1.48 | 4.07 | 1.24 | 4.31 | 1.20 | 4.35 |
| 1 CPSR | 4.25 | 1.40 | 2.85 | 1.48 | 2.77 | 1.24 | 3.01 | 1.20 | 3.05 |
| 1 CPSW | 4.63 | 1.40 | 3.23 | 1.48 | 3.15 | 1.24 | 3.39 | 1.20 | 3.43 |
| 1 CWRW | 4.22 | 1.40 | 2.82 | 1.48 | 2.74 | 1.24 | 2.98 | 1.20 | 3.02 |
| 1 CWES | 4.63 | 1.46 | 3.17 | 1.52 | 3.11 | 1.21 | 3.42 | 1.20 | 3.43 |
| 1 CWSWS | 5.06 | 1.40 | 3.66 | 1.48 | 3.58 | 1.24 | 3.82 | 1.20 | 3.86 |
| CW Feed | 3.27 | 1.40 | 1.87 | 1.48 | 1.79 | 1.24 | 2.03 | 1.20 | 2.07 |
| Durum | |||||||||
| 1 CWAD 14.5 | 6.29 | 1.09 | 5.20 | 1.31 | 4.98 | 1.23 | 5.06 | 1.20 | 5.09 |
| 1 CWAD 13.0 | 5.82 | 1.09 | 4.73 | 1.31 | 4.51 | 1.23 | 4.59 | 1.20 | 4.62 |
| 1 CWAD 12.5 | 5.69 | 1.09 | 4.60 | 1.31 | 4.38 | 1.23 | 4.46 | 1.20 | 4.49 |
| 1 CWAD 11.5 | 5.44 | 1.09 | 4.35 | 1.31 | 4.13 | 1.23 | 4.21 | 1.20 | 4.24 |
| 2 CWAD 13.0 | 5.50 | 1.09 | 4.41 | 1.31 | 4.19 | 1.23 | 4.27 | 1.20 | 4.30 |
| 2 CWAD 11.5 | 5.28 | 1.09 | 4.19 | 1.31 | 3.97 | 1.23 | 4.05 | 1.20 | 4.08 |
| 3 CWAD 13.0 | 4.93 | 1.09 | 3.84 | 1.31 | 3.62 | 1.23 | 3.70 | 1.20 | 3.73 |
| 3 CWAD | 4.76 | 1.09 | 3.67 | 1.31 | 3.45 | 1.23 | 3.53 | 1.20 | 3.56 |
| 4 CWAD | 4.22 | 1.09 | 3.13 | 1.31 | 2.91 | 1.23 | 2.99 | 1.20 | 3.02 |
| 5 CWAD | 3.13 | 1.09 | 2.04 | 1.31 | 1.82 | 1.23 | 1.90 | 1.20 | 1.93 |
| Feed barley | |||||||||
| 1 CW - Pool B | 2.81 | 1.41 | 1.40 | 1.28 | 1.53 | 1.10 | 1.71 | 1.04 | 1.77 |
| Designated barley | |||||||||
| SS CW Two-Row | 3.90 | 1.15 | 2.75 | 1.27 | 2.63 | 1.11 | 2.79 | 1.09 | 2.81 |
| Std Sel Two-Row | 3.79 | 1.15 | 2.64 | 1.27 | 2.52 | 1.11 | 2.68 | 1.09 | 2.70 |
| SS CW Six-Row | 3.61 | 1.15 | 2.46 | 1.27 | 2.34 | 1.11 | 2.50 | 1.09 | 2.52 |
| Std Sel Six-Row | 3.51 | 1.15 | 2.36 | 1.27 | 2.24 | 1.11 | 2.40 | 1.09 | 2.42 |
|
*Bushel figures may not be exact due to rounding conversions to two decimal points. Estimated deductions are based on tariff rates and include freight, country elevation and removal of dockage. Deductions will vary by delivery point. |
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